Today, Bitcoin (BTC) briefly traded above $69,000, closing in on the all-time high (ATH) of $73,737 recorded earlier this year in March.
Bitcoin ‘Bullish Setup’ is reminiscent of the 2020 rally
After months of sideways price movements since March, BTC is continually trying to reach a new ATH as the US presidential elections approach. The digital asset briefly topped $69,000 before falling to $68,674 at the time of writing.
During an interview with CNBC, Matthew Sigel, Head of Digital Assets Research at VanEck, said: said:
Our guess is that this is a very bullish setup for Bitcoin in the election. We saw the exact same pattern in 2020 where Bitcoin lagged behind with low volatility and once the winner was announced we had a high volume rally as new buyers entered this market.
Sigel added that once the election results are confirmed, Moody’s is expected to cut the US national debt, which could catalyze a BTC rally in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Crypto analyst Michael van de Poppe also noted that despite Bitcoin’s relatively muted performance in October – a traditionally strong month for the asset – BTC is well positioned to reach a new ATH soon.
He be shows that despite recent interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, interest rates remain high enough to favor risky assets such as US Treasury bonds (T-bills), drawing liquidity away from riskier assets.
The Dutch crypto analyst drew attention to the rising M2 money supply, saying the measure’s strong positive correlation with BTC could indicate the digital asset could be on the cusp of a major rally. He said:
As long as the supply of M2 increases, the price of Bitcoin will follow… so it’s only a matter of time until the price of Bitcoin gains momentum.
Notably, Van de Poppe also said that a potential Donald Trump presidency could lead to optimism in the crypto sector, potentially triggering a bull run for digital assets in the coming months.
Trump continues to lead the prediction markets
Facts from Polymarket – a decentralized prediction market platform – indicates that Trump is favored to win over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
At the time of writing, Trump’s probability of winning the election is greater than 66%. By comparison, Harris’ chances are about 34%.
A recent study found that the influence of the crypto voting bloc on the election results is probably underestimated. The survey found that nearly 16% of voters believe the candidate’s stance on cryptocurrencies will influence their vote choice.
While most in the crypto industry scanty Harris has been active against Trump for his pro-crypto stance to court part of its crypto support base.
Recently an analyst thought that a Harris-led administration might be better than Joe Biden’s for the digital assets industry. BTC is trading at $68,674 at the time of writing, up 1.2% in the last 24 hours.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, chart from TradingView.com