Despite macroeconomic headwinds, Bitcoin (BTC) appears poised to create a new all-time high (ATH) driven by positive seasonality in the fourth quarter of 2024.
Bitcoin new ATH on the horizon?
On October 28, BTC surged past $71,000, leading to optimism for a new ATH above the peak of $73,737 recorded in March this year. Although BTC has crossed the $70,000 threshold several times since then, it has yet to set a new ATH.
According to a recent report from cryptocurrency trading platform Bitfinex, Bitcoin could be on track for a new ATH shortly after the US presidential election. Bitcoin is often seen as a “Trump trade,” which shows a strong correlation with Donald Trump’s election chances.
For example, after a 6% decline last week, BTC has recovered all its losses, coinciding with Trump’s rising election odds on Polymarket, a decentralized prediction market platform.
At the time of writing, Trump leads with a 66.1% chance of winning versus Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, who is at 33.9%. However, opinion polls show that there is a neck-and-neck race, making the election outcome uncertain.
A possible Trump victory will set the options market in turmoil. According to the report, BTC’s long-term bullish outlook remains intact, even though short-term volatility could increase as the election results draw closer. It says:
Options that expire on key dates around the election carry higher premiums, with implied volatility expected to reach a peak at 100 daily full on November 8, just after Election Day – indicating the market is bracing for potential turbulence. Regardless of the election outcome, short-term volatility is expected to be higher than normal, although we remain confident in longer-term price appreciation.
It is worth highlighting that BTC fell to a low of $52,756 in September. However, the key digital asset rose almost 30% in October, inspiring some confidence in the “To” story.
Seasonality is on Bitcoin’s side
The report highlights that BTC is positioned to benefit from “favorable seasonality in the fourth quarter.” Historically, the fourth quarter has been profitable for BTC during the half-years, with an average quarterly return of 31.34%.
The increase in the number of call options expiring on December 27 – especially at the $80,000 strike price – also strengthens BTC’s bullish outlook for the fourth quarter of 2024. The report adds:
Because options open interest climbs to new heightsthe market is showing signs of positioning for a post-election surge, potentially pushing Bitcoin towards – and beyond – its all-time high of $73,666.
In similar news earlier this month, crypto research firm K33 Research reported noted that the latest positive developments in the FTX fiasco are driving Bitcoin’s bullish Q4 story.
BTC is trading at $71,110 at the time of writing, up 3.1% in the last 24 hours and about 3.5% away from the current ATH. Whether BTC will continue The upward trend in the rest of the quarter remains to be seen whether another rejection will follow.
Featured image from Unsplash.com, charts from Polymarket and TradingView.com